What chance do you have to make loss or profit?
Gents,Probability is a great thing. you can discover in advance what is likely to happen.Suppose you bought a trading system which can give you a success rate of 65% or a winning percentage of 65%First look at failure ratethis means, the odds of your making one loss are 100-65=35%The odds of making two consecutive losses are=35%*35%=12%the odds of making three consecutive losses are=35*35*35=4%the odds of making four consecutive losses are=1.5%the odds of making five consecutive losses are=0.5%the chance that you make loss 5 times one after another is almost 1%the chance you make loss three times is 4%.sO MOST PROBABLE IS YOU MAY LOOSE TWO TIMES.NOW Look at winning sideTHE ODDS OF ONE GAIN ARE=65%the odds of two consecutive gains are=65*65=42% success (chance to fail =58%)the odds of three consecutive successes are=65*65*65=27.5%the odds of four consecutive successes are=18% (chance to fail 82%)the odds of five consecutive successes are=12% (chance to fail 88%)you may have max 2 gains one after another=================================Now if you take 4 wins and 6 failures,net result will be65*65*65*65*35*35*35*35*35*35=0.03% just less than 1%the odds of having 5 successes and 5 failures are65*35*65*35*65*35*65*35*65*35=0.06%Now you can imagine what can happen if you have a system with 50% success rate!!!! more loss is likely than gainso it is the winning edge that counts a lot.Ramesh151
Saturday, June 24, 2006
mercator lines charts
leftside chart=short term rightside chart=medium termclick on the chart to expand it and see biggersize.
trendlines indicate current downtrend. medium term chart shows stock going no where
when you get profit exit and invest elsewhere.
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
sensex chart on 21 june 2006
Chart belongs to CAS
hello everybody........find sensex chart eith new feature.....it shows ..gap. valley.pivots.& patterns.....i ll give details very soon....for 220606 chart says closing will be higher than todays ...[ 60 % chance for higher closing]....hope it will be useful...thanks ..
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
Sunday, June 11, 2006
Deaf and Mute charts communicate Loud
stocks and trading basics
Charts may be Deaf & Mute,yet they-----
------------------------------------------------------
GENTLEMEN,
A picture is worth a million of words.
A video is one solid way to learn about new concepts,catch up with hints,clues and develop oneself.
Now watch a forex video.
Why forex video,you may say,"I dont trade forex, I trade only stocks."
Yes, I know that.
For a clever guy, he can learn from anything.
You may say "I am not clever"-
my question is -Do you want to remain like that forever? Dont you want to improve?
A smart person can learn from others experience.
For one who is smart,he can see the hint or clue to catch up and improve,after teasting,of course.
IF YOU WANT A WIINING EDGE IN MARKETS AND TRADING, YOU MUST SHARPEN YOUR SKILS, and as you keep doing that, AN EDGE WILL APPEAR, A WINNING EDGE AND THAT IS THE WAY TO BECOME A SUCCESSFUL TRADER.
Integral information and education is one right way to become a profitable trader.Educate yourself.
Are you putting in efforts in that direction?
--------------------------------------------------------
sOME TRUTHs
1)Charts may be deaf and mute, but they communicate, and they do it loud and clear.Point is CAN YOU LISTEN AS THEY SPEAK UP?
Just imagine guys having no right chart to help them,they are in dark.
2) Markets have their sign language and that is candlesticks.
So if you dont know about this language,you are reading an unknown language. What a pity in the city?
3) Dont tell the markets what you are going to do next, if you tell the market your next move,it will take advantage of you.
Dont let the market take advantage of you.
Instead, let the market tell you what it is going to do next, and you trade in that direction it hints you at.
---------------------------
Watch video
http://www.markettraders.com/
Click on forex charts introduction
Watch the video.
There are things to learn, but only if you read in between the lines.
Good luck!!!
----------------------------------------------------
Charts may be Deaf & Mute,yet they-----
------------------------------------------------------
GENTLEMEN,
A picture is worth a million of words.
A video is one solid way to learn about new concepts,catch up with hints,clues and develop oneself.
Now watch a forex video.
Why forex video,you may say,"I dont trade forex, I trade only stocks."
Yes, I know that.
For a clever guy, he can learn from anything.
You may say "I am not clever"-
my question is -Do you want to remain like that forever? Dont you want to improve?
A smart person can learn from others experience.
For one who is smart,he can see the hint or clue to catch up and improve,after teasting,of course.
IF YOU WANT A WIINING EDGE IN MARKETS AND TRADING, YOU MUST SHARPEN YOUR SKILS, and as you keep doing that, AN EDGE WILL APPEAR, A WINNING EDGE AND THAT IS THE WAY TO BECOME A SUCCESSFUL TRADER.
Integral information and education is one right way to become a profitable trader.Educate yourself.
Are you putting in efforts in that direction?
--------------------------------------------------------
sOME TRUTHs
1)Charts may be deaf and mute, but they communicate, and they do it loud and clear.Point is CAN YOU LISTEN AS THEY SPEAK UP?
Just imagine guys having no right chart to help them,they are in dark.
2) Markets have their sign language and that is candlesticks.
So if you dont know about this language,you are reading an unknown language. What a pity in the city?
3) Dont tell the markets what you are going to do next, if you tell the market your next move,it will take advantage of you.
Dont let the market take advantage of you.
Instead, let the market tell you what it is going to do next, and you trade in that direction it hints you at.
---------------------------
Watch video
http://www.markettraders.com/
Click on forex charts introduction
Watch the video.
There are things to learn, but only if you read in between the lines.
Good luck!!!
----------------------------------------------------
Top 7 warnings Enron gave before crash
stocks and trading basics
Top 7 Warnings & Enron Nailed In Coffin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gents,
Lesson in market crash
From big profits to total wipe out of investor capital
When stock goes down it gives warnings time and again.
But the pity is the investors,stay complacent,and prefer to listen to analysts
on TV rather than catch up with the hidden clues the technical analysis gives.
7 warnings to stock moving into coffin to get nailed
As told by Alan Farley
1. Broken trendline after 5 month rally--beginning of the downside
2. when the stock breaks the 50-day moving average on strong volume.
3.The stock then waves another red flag.
Price bounces back to the 50-day moving average from below but fails to break it for four sessions. Hear that ominous sound?
Warning No. 3 just rang a very loud bell.
4.The selloff expands out of the failed test and closes at the low -- right at the 100% retracement of the last rally.
This level should provide strong support and stop the selloff. So how come day-traders didn't step in and bounce the stock before the close? Members of the jury, I give you Warning No. 4.
5.Armageddon strikes the next day. Price rips a 19% gap on high volume and
6.Price breaks the 200-day moving average.
7.Nail in the coffin
Watch what happens when we zoom out and look at the long-term chart.
The gap triggers the failure of a multiyear channel breakout.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Read all of it here at link
http://www.tradingday.com/c/tatuto/h...ioncoming.html
Top 7 Warnings & Enron Nailed In Coffin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gents,
Lesson in market crash
From big profits to total wipe out of investor capital
When stock goes down it gives warnings time and again.
But the pity is the investors,stay complacent,and prefer to listen to analysts
on TV rather than catch up with the hidden clues the technical analysis gives.
7 warnings to stock moving into coffin to get nailed
As told by Alan Farley
1. Broken trendline after 5 month rally--beginning of the downside
2. when the stock breaks the 50-day moving average on strong volume.
3.The stock then waves another red flag.
Price bounces back to the 50-day moving average from below but fails to break it for four sessions. Hear that ominous sound?
Warning No. 3 just rang a very loud bell.
4.The selloff expands out of the failed test and closes at the low -- right at the 100% retracement of the last rally.
This level should provide strong support and stop the selloff. So how come day-traders didn't step in and bounce the stock before the close? Members of the jury, I give you Warning No. 4.
5.Armageddon strikes the next day. Price rips a 19% gap on high volume and
6.Price breaks the 200-day moving average.
7.Nail in the coffin
Watch what happens when we zoom out and look at the long-term chart.
The gap triggers the failure of a multiyear channel breakout.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Read all of it here at link
http://www.tradingday.com/c/tatuto/h...ioncoming.html
Daytrading brokerage optimisation
stocks and trading basics
Brokerage Charges On 5paisa.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gents,
MY MOTTO
MINIMISE TRADING COSTS, MEANS BROKERAGE AND TAXES!!!
When you daytrade,brokerage is the most important part of costs.
The cost of trading normally consists of
brokerage charges
service charge on brokerage charges
STT transaction tax
other charge=regu charge
stamp duty at the end of each month
costs of demat account related stuff
==========================================
In this I just cover daytrading expenses on indiainfoline.com
or 5paisa.com
Suppose you bought and sold 270 shares of infosys on sameday.
----------------------------
summary
270 share bought at 2791.01
270 share sold at 2799.40
TURNOVER=1509412 RUPEES
price diff 2268
brk plus tax 1126.02
net gain to hand 1141.978648
COST DETAILS
I) BROKERAGE
A)BROKERAGE FOR BUYING=376.2
B)BROKERAGE FOR SELLING=378.6
TOTAL=A+B=TOTAL BROKERAGE(NO TAX)=754.8
II)Regul charges=90.56
III)S T T (security transaction tax)=189
IV)Service charge on brokerage amount at 12.2%=92.38
TOTAL CHARGES=brokerage plus all taxes=754.8+90.56+189+92.58=1126.02
If you made 2268 apparent gain due to price difference, in that you have to pay about 50% towards brokerage plus taxes.
=============================
OUT OF THE GAINS YOU MADE,WHEN YOU TRADE INFOSYS
50% you keep, and 50% you pay broker.
EQUAL SHARING, WOW, VERY DEMOCRATIC INDEED!!!!!!!!!!!!
YOUR BROKER GETS RICH BECAUSE OF YOU IN THIS WAY IF YOU TRADE.
you get just 1141.98 rupees in your hand
By the way what is the brokerage plus tax as percentage?
% brk+taxes all included=100*(1126/1509412)=0.07465%
-----------------------------------------------------------
For Every 100 rupees worth of shares you buy or sell,
you pay 7.46 paisa as brokerage plus tax.
Two points to note here are
1. The higher the share price, the higher brokerage you pay(0.05%)
2.The more the brokerage,the more the service tax(12.2% of brokerage)
3.The higher the share price, higher is the turnover and hence more STT you
pay (0.0125% of turnover,turnover being buy+sell tradevalue)
4.There aRE OTHERS REGU CHARGE AT 0.006% of turnover
-----------------------------------------------------------
Try tro do things differently, and see
nOW iF YOU SELECT A LOW PRICED SHARE LIKE mARUTI, LET US SEE
ther cost
If YOU trade 270 maruti shares,for 5 rupees price diff
buy270 Shares of maruti at 700 =189,000
sell 270 shares of maruti at 705 =190,350
TRADING Turnover =379,350
PRICE DIFF=705 LESS 700 MULTIPLY BY 270 SHARES=5*270=1350 RUPEES
fOR BUYING+selling =brk+tax =282.9951
tOTAL BRK PLUS TAX= Rupees 283
price diff =apparent gain excluding tax=1350
deduct brokerage plus tax of 283
net gain to hand =1067.0049
Here you made 1350 and in that you paid 29% to broker as total costs
79% of your apparent gain is in your hands.
In this way if you trade , you become rich.
you take 79% and you give out 21% as trading costs.
MORAL= SELECT LOW PRICED STOCK IN STEAD OF HIGH PRICED ONE.
PAY LESS OF BROKERAGE,LESS OF SERVICE TAXES,LESS OF STT AND LESS OF OTHERS. OF COURSE ALL FOR THE SAME PROFIT!!!!!
tHIS IS LIKE A BUSINESSMAN.
CONCLUSION
-------------------------------------------------------------
I PREFER TO STAY AS BUSINESSMAN AND MINIMISE MY COSTS.
I WANT TO BECOME RICH,
I DONT WANT MY BROKER TO GET RICH BEFORE I BECOME RICH.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Tip;
If you dont read posts by Ramesh151, You miss a lot!!!!!!!!!!!
=============================================
NOw I wait to see the similar info from any customer of icicidirect.com, which by the way the most expensive and least profitable in margin trading.
Anybody come forward to prove ,me wrong?I dont think so, not in the near future.
why?
The fact the guy is using ICICIDIRECT SHOWS how much careful he is with his money. He is already making his broker rich, yeah,at least till today.
why not tomorrow?
because if he reads this post, he will wake up and --------------.
shiv khera says
YOU CAN WIN
Winners dont do different things. winners do things differently.
By the way, do you want to win? or WAITING FOR NEXT MONTH,NEXT YEAR ETC?
Brokerage Charges On 5paisa.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gents,
MY MOTTO
MINIMISE TRADING COSTS, MEANS BROKERAGE AND TAXES!!!
When you daytrade,brokerage is the most important part of costs.
The cost of trading normally consists of
brokerage charges
service charge on brokerage charges
STT transaction tax
other charge=regu charge
stamp duty at the end of each month
costs of demat account related stuff
==========================================
In this I just cover daytrading expenses on indiainfoline.com
or 5paisa.com
Suppose you bought and sold 270 shares of infosys on sameday.
----------------------------
summary
270 share bought at 2791.01
270 share sold at 2799.40
TURNOVER=1509412 RUPEES
price diff 2268
brk plus tax 1126.02
net gain to hand 1141.978648
COST DETAILS
I) BROKERAGE
A)BROKERAGE FOR BUYING=376.2
B)BROKERAGE FOR SELLING=378.6
TOTAL=A+B=TOTAL BROKERAGE(NO TAX)=754.8
II)Regul charges=90.56
III)S T T (security transaction tax)=189
IV)Service charge on brokerage amount at 12.2%=92.38
TOTAL CHARGES=brokerage plus all taxes=754.8+90.56+189+92.58=1126.02
If you made 2268 apparent gain due to price difference, in that you have to pay about 50% towards brokerage plus taxes.
=============================
OUT OF THE GAINS YOU MADE,WHEN YOU TRADE INFOSYS
50% you keep, and 50% you pay broker.
EQUAL SHARING, WOW, VERY DEMOCRATIC INDEED!!!!!!!!!!!!
YOUR BROKER GETS RICH BECAUSE OF YOU IN THIS WAY IF YOU TRADE.
you get just 1141.98 rupees in your hand
By the way what is the brokerage plus tax as percentage?
% brk+taxes all included=100*(1126/1509412)=0.07465%
-----------------------------------------------------------
For Every 100 rupees worth of shares you buy or sell,
you pay 7.46 paisa as brokerage plus tax.
Two points to note here are
1. The higher the share price, the higher brokerage you pay(0.05%)
2.The more the brokerage,the more the service tax(12.2% of brokerage)
3.The higher the share price, higher is the turnover and hence more STT you
pay (0.0125% of turnover,turnover being buy+sell tradevalue)
4.There aRE OTHERS REGU CHARGE AT 0.006% of turnover
-----------------------------------------------------------
Try tro do things differently, and see
nOW iF YOU SELECT A LOW PRICED SHARE LIKE mARUTI, LET US SEE
ther cost
If YOU trade 270 maruti shares,for 5 rupees price diff
buy270 Shares of maruti at 700 =189,000
sell 270 shares of maruti at 705 =190,350
TRADING Turnover =379,350
PRICE DIFF=705 LESS 700 MULTIPLY BY 270 SHARES=5*270=1350 RUPEES
fOR BUYING+selling =brk+tax =282.9951
tOTAL BRK PLUS TAX= Rupees 283
price diff =apparent gain excluding tax=1350
deduct brokerage plus tax of 283
net gain to hand =1067.0049
Here you made 1350 and in that you paid 29% to broker as total costs
79% of your apparent gain is in your hands.
In this way if you trade , you become rich.
you take 79% and you give out 21% as trading costs.
MORAL= SELECT LOW PRICED STOCK IN STEAD OF HIGH PRICED ONE.
PAY LESS OF BROKERAGE,LESS OF SERVICE TAXES,LESS OF STT AND LESS OF OTHERS. OF COURSE ALL FOR THE SAME PROFIT!!!!!
tHIS IS LIKE A BUSINESSMAN.
CONCLUSION
-------------------------------------------------------------
I PREFER TO STAY AS BUSINESSMAN AND MINIMISE MY COSTS.
I WANT TO BECOME RICH,
I DONT WANT MY BROKER TO GET RICH BEFORE I BECOME RICH.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Tip;
If you dont read posts by Ramesh151, You miss a lot!!!!!!!!!!!
=============================================
NOw I wait to see the similar info from any customer of icicidirect.com, which by the way the most expensive and least profitable in margin trading.
Anybody come forward to prove ,me wrong?I dont think so, not in the near future.
why?
The fact the guy is using ICICIDIRECT SHOWS how much careful he is with his money. He is already making his broker rich, yeah,at least till today.
why not tomorrow?
because if he reads this post, he will wake up and --------------.
shiv khera says
YOU CAN WIN
Winners dont do different things. winners do things differently.
By the way, do you want to win? or WAITING FOR NEXT MONTH,NEXT YEAR ETC?
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